The Manchester Consensus: Why the UK must ‘look up’ on AI

Alan Turing and IJ Good warned us this moment would come. We argue the moment to act is now.

Published on James W. Phillips' Newsletter • Sep 17

Fast Take-Off, Forecasting, Resolution Criteria

Cassi’s forecasts on the GO Science report point toward the more extreme scenarios; forecasting on them shows the import of resolution criteria…

Sep 14 • Keith Dear

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Forecasting the UK Government’s AI Scenarios

Launching Cassi’s Forecast Room to help you consider: what would change your mind on the speed and significance of AI progress?

Sep 4 • Keith Dear

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August 2026

AI: Single-Issue Mania

On alignment, frontier progress and UK policy.

Aug 31 • Keith Dear

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June 2026

Automate the MOD’s R&D

With AI nationalism heating up, the AI frontier accelerating how does the UK, and MOD, remain relevant and keep up?

Jun 15 • Keith Dear

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May 2026

The Blindspot in Sequoia’s Future Tech Stack Vision: Judgement

Two recent essays from Sequoia's Jack Dorsey and Julien Bek paint a vision of future enterprises in a world of ever more capable AIs. We offer a review…

May 31 • Keith Dear

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AI Prediction is Probability not Prophecy

The danger is neither Oracle nor algorithm, but unaccountable predictions.

May 28 • Keith Dear

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Our AI Evidence to Parliament Suggests a More Honest Future for UK Politics

Cassi's forecasts on the likelihood of the UK involvement in a major conflict to 2036 were about more than defence and security.

May 13 • Keith Dear

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April 2026

Forecasting & Finance

Cassi in conversation with James Aitken of Aitken Advisors.

Apr 24 • Keith Dear

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1:21:02

March 2026

Organoid Computing: AGI Convergence

Part 2: AI is leaving us behind. We need a portfolio of bets.

Mar 8 • Keith Dear

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February 2026

Humanity’s Last Exam for Forecasting?

Cassi's Performance on Forecast Bench & its Implications

Feb 23 • Keith Dear

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January 2026

Jan/Feb 2026: AI Is Leaving You Behind

Part 1: Clawdbot/Moltbot/OpenClaw

Jan 31 • Keith Dear

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