Forecasting the UK Government’s AI Scenarios

Launching Cassi’s Forecast Room to help you consider: what would change your mind on the speed and significance of AI progress?

Sep 4 • Keith Dear

1

1

August 2026

AI: Single-Issue Mania

On alignment, frontier progress and UK policy.

Aug 31 • Keith Dear

6

1

5

June 2026

Automate the MOD’s R&D

With AI nationalism heating up, the AI frontier accelerating how does the UK, and MOD, remain relevant and keep up?

Jun 15 • Keith Dear

4

2

3

May 2026

The Blindspot in Sequoia’s Future Tech Stack Vision: Judgement

Two recent essays from Sequoia's Jack Dorsey and Julien Bek paint a vision of future enterprises in a world of ever more capable AIs. We offer a review…

May 31 • Keith Dear

3

1

AI Prediction is Probability not Prophecy

The danger is neither Oracle nor algorithm, but unaccountable predictions.

May 28 • Keith Dear

7

3

3

Our AI Evidence to Parliament Suggests a More Honest Future for UK Politics

Cassi's forecasts on the likelihood of the UK involvement in a major conflict to 2036 were about more than defence and security.

May 13 • Keith Dear

1

4

1

April 2026

Forecasting & Finance

Cassi in conversation with James Aitken of Aitken Advisors.

Apr 24 • Keith Dear

9

2

1:21:02

March 2026

Organoid Computing: AGI Convergence

Part 2: AI is leaving us behind. We need a portfolio of bets.

Mar 8 • Keith Dear

4

1

3

February 2026

Humanity’s Last Exam for Forecasting?

Cassi's Performance on Forecast Bench & its Implications

Feb 23 • Keith Dear

11

1

January 2026

Jan/Feb 2026: AI Is Leaving You Behind

Part 1: Clawdbot/Moltbot/OpenClaw

Jan 31 • Keith Dear

22

10

2

December 2025

November 2025

The Frontier Moves Again

AI progress above and below the surface.

Nov 19, 2025 • Keith Dear

11

4

3