Humanity’s Last Exam for Forecasting?

Cassi's Performance on Forecast Bench & its Implications

Feb 23 • Keith Dear

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January 2026

Jan/Feb 2026: AI Is Leaving You Behind

Part 1: Clawdbot/Moltbot/OpenClaw

Jan 31 • Keith Dear

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December 2025

November 2025

The Frontier Moves Again

AI progress above and below the surface.

Nov 19, 2025 • Keith Dear

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95% of AI Investments Generate Zero ROI

But also, 74% deliver positive ROI. Two reports, contradictory findings. What can we learn?

Nov 7, 2025 • Keith Dear

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October 2025

Never tell me the Odds: Is your CEO Han Solo?

Probabilistic strategy, tactics, decisions require a mindset shift: stop hiding from the odds; start moving them.

Oct 7, 2025 • Keith Dear

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September 2025

Prediction Centric Warfare

Notes and slides from my talk at DSEI yesterday.

Sep 10, 2025 • Keith Dear

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Everything is Prediction

From Ramsey to Yudkowsky, the case for making our bets explicit.

Sep 2, 2025 • Keith Dear

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August 2025

Future Diplomat

Reimagining Diplomacy for 2035.

Aug 19, 2025 • Keith Dear

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What did you do in the AI Revolution, Daddy?

Pre-GPT-5, Post AGI? For too many, hope is the largest part of their AI strategy. We are still under-estimating the speed of AI progress, and the…

Aug 1, 2025 • Keith Dear

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June 2025

UK Strategic Defence Review (SDR): Reviewing the Review & the Reactionariat.

The good, bad and ugly.

Jun 4, 2025 • Keith Dear

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May 2025

Doctor Weirdlove or: “How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Skynet”

Why betting on a crewed RAF Tempest is a dangerous gamble—and how ignoring the AGI debate leaves us strategically exposed

May 9, 2025 • Keith Dear

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