The Blindspot in Sequoia’s Future Tech Stack Vision: Judgement

Two recent essays from Sequoia's Jack Dorsey and Julien Bek paint a vision of future enterprises in a world of ever more capable AIs. We offer a review…

May 31 • Keith Dear

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AI Prediction is Probability not Prophesy

The danger is neither Oracle nor algorithm, but unaccountable predictions.

May 28 • Keith Dear

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Our AI Evidence to Parliament Suggests a More Honest Future for UK Politics

Cassi's forecasts on the likelihood of the UK involvement in a major conflict to 2036 were about more than defence and security.

May 13 • Keith Dear

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April 2026

Forecasting & Finance

Cassi in conversation with James Aitken of Aitken Advisors.

Apr 24 • Keith Dear

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March 2026

Organoid Computing: AGI Convergence

Part 2: AI is leaving us behind. We need a portfolio of bets.

Mar 8 • Keith Dear

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February 2026

Humanity’s Last Exam for Forecasting?

Cassi's Performance on Forecast Bench & its Implications

Feb 23 • Keith Dear

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January 2026

Jan/Feb 2026: AI Is Leaving You Behind

Part 1: Clawdbot/Moltbot/OpenClaw

Jan 31 • Keith Dear

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December 2025

November 2025

The Frontier Moves Again

AI progress above and below the surface.

Nov 19, 2025 • Keith Dear

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95% of AI Investments Generate Zero ROI

But also, 74% deliver positive ROI. Two reports, contradictory findings. What can we learn?

Nov 7, 2025 • Keith Dear

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October 2025

Never tell me the Odds: Is your CEO Han Solo?

Probabilistic strategy, tactics, decisions require a mindset shift: stop hiding from the odds; start moving them.

Oct 7, 2025 • Keith Dear

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September 2025

Prediction Centric Warfare

Notes and slides from my talk at DSEI yesterday.

Sep 10, 2025 • Keith Dear

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